Leroy N. Soetoro
2024-10-11 20:31:04 UTC
https://www.dailysignal.com/2024/08/06/data-screams-recession/
Recession triggered, reads the headline from ZeroHedge as jobs collapse,
unemployment jumps, and the dreaded recessionary Sahm Rule triggers.
The Fed seems to agree, with markets now predicting a half-point rate cut
in September, and two of Americas largest banksJ.P. Morgan and
Citipredicting another half-point cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting
just after the Nov. 5 election.
A full point in two meetings qualifies as panic in central banking.
And considering inflation is still in full swing, and the Fed knows rate
cuts make inflation go up, that would strongly suggest the Fed is
battening down for a hurricane, whatever sweet nothings Chairman Jerome
Powell is peddling these days to make sure the normies get blindsided.
The dismal numbers come from Fridays jobs report, which alleges the U.S.
added just 83,000 jobs last month, down from an alleged 206,000 the
previous month.
Alleged because aside from revisions that come like clockwork, most jobs
this year actually may be statistical illusions going by the household
survey. Meanwhile, for a year now weve seen that the new jobs actually
are part-time gigs while we lose almost the exact number of full-time
jobs.
Plus, of course, the overwhelming majority of new jobs actually going to
government workers, government welfare spending, and imported migrantsI
mentioned in recent videos that native-born workers, including native-born
immigrants, have had zero job growth since June 2018.
In terms of composition, last month government and social assistance
continued their takeover of the economy, hogging nearly two-thirds of all
new jobs. The rest of the economy that actually produces stuff, from
manufacturing and construction to transport and services, is down to a
third.
Tallying it up, official unemployment jumped to 4.3%, the highest since
October 2021, when
Bidenflation was running wild. Note that if you include discouraged
workers whove given up on a jobthe so-called U-6 rateofficial
unemployment is almost 8%, up a half point on the month.
Even controlling for layoffs for Hurricane Beryl, thats roughly 300,000
new unemployed on the month.
Finally, the jobs number triggered the dreaded Sahm Rule, widely cited in
financial markets to predict recessions. The rule triggers when average
unemployment goes a half point above its one-year low.
It just triggered.
So whats next? Going by rate cuts, the Fed is clearly panicked. The
question is how much.
If Morgan and Citi are correct that were in for a full point of cuts in
two Fed meetings, thats a proper panic. Suggesting the Fed knows a big
one is coming or its already hereand as always its hiding it instead of
giving regular Americans the heads-up.
Fortunately, most Americans think were already in recessionnote that
recessions typically arent announced until nine to 12 months after they
began.
So at least those Americans will be able to protect themselves. Well,
theyll protect their portfolios. Not their jobs.
As for the rest whore still merrily drinking the Kool-Aid, millions will
get wiped out.
--
We live in a time where intelligent people are being silenced so that
stupid people won't be offended.
Durham Report: The FBI has an integrity problem. It has none.
No collusion - Special Counsel Robert Swan Mueller III, March 2019.
Officially made Nancy Pelosi a two-time impeachment loser.
Thank you for cleaning up the disaster of the 2008-2017 Obama / Biden
fiasco, President Trump.
Under Barack Obama's leadership, the United States of America became the
The World According To Garp. Obama sold out heterosexuals for Hollywood
queer liberal democrat donors.
President Trump boosted the economy, reduced illegal invasions, appointed
dozens of judges and three SCOTUS justices.
Recession triggered, reads the headline from ZeroHedge as jobs collapse,
unemployment jumps, and the dreaded recessionary Sahm Rule triggers.
The Fed seems to agree, with markets now predicting a half-point rate cut
in September, and two of Americas largest banksJ.P. Morgan and
Citipredicting another half-point cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting
just after the Nov. 5 election.
A full point in two meetings qualifies as panic in central banking.
And considering inflation is still in full swing, and the Fed knows rate
cuts make inflation go up, that would strongly suggest the Fed is
battening down for a hurricane, whatever sweet nothings Chairman Jerome
Powell is peddling these days to make sure the normies get blindsided.
The dismal numbers come from Fridays jobs report, which alleges the U.S.
added just 83,000 jobs last month, down from an alleged 206,000 the
previous month.
Alleged because aside from revisions that come like clockwork, most jobs
this year actually may be statistical illusions going by the household
survey. Meanwhile, for a year now weve seen that the new jobs actually
are part-time gigs while we lose almost the exact number of full-time
jobs.
Plus, of course, the overwhelming majority of new jobs actually going to
government workers, government welfare spending, and imported migrantsI
mentioned in recent videos that native-born workers, including native-born
immigrants, have had zero job growth since June 2018.
In terms of composition, last month government and social assistance
continued their takeover of the economy, hogging nearly two-thirds of all
new jobs. The rest of the economy that actually produces stuff, from
manufacturing and construction to transport and services, is down to a
third.
Tallying it up, official unemployment jumped to 4.3%, the highest since
October 2021, when
Bidenflation was running wild. Note that if you include discouraged
workers whove given up on a jobthe so-called U-6 rateofficial
unemployment is almost 8%, up a half point on the month.
Even controlling for layoffs for Hurricane Beryl, thats roughly 300,000
new unemployed on the month.
Finally, the jobs number triggered the dreaded Sahm Rule, widely cited in
financial markets to predict recessions. The rule triggers when average
unemployment goes a half point above its one-year low.
It just triggered.
So whats next? Going by rate cuts, the Fed is clearly panicked. The
question is how much.
If Morgan and Citi are correct that were in for a full point of cuts in
two Fed meetings, thats a proper panic. Suggesting the Fed knows a big
one is coming or its already hereand as always its hiding it instead of
giving regular Americans the heads-up.
Fortunately, most Americans think were already in recessionnote that
recessions typically arent announced until nine to 12 months after they
began.
So at least those Americans will be able to protect themselves. Well,
theyll protect their portfolios. Not their jobs.
As for the rest whore still merrily drinking the Kool-Aid, millions will
get wiped out.
--
We live in a time where intelligent people are being silenced so that
stupid people won't be offended.
Durham Report: The FBI has an integrity problem. It has none.
No collusion - Special Counsel Robert Swan Mueller III, March 2019.
Officially made Nancy Pelosi a two-time impeachment loser.
Thank you for cleaning up the disaster of the 2008-2017 Obama / Biden
fiasco, President Trump.
Under Barack Obama's leadership, the United States of America became the
The World According To Garp. Obama sold out heterosexuals for Hollywood
queer liberal democrat donors.
President Trump boosted the economy, reduced illegal invasions, appointed
dozens of judges and three SCOTUS justices.