walt tonne
2012-03-20 12:00:07 UTC
Fewer Mexicans, less crime.
Reporting from Washington and Los Angeles -- For years,
America's growing and mobile Latino population helped transform
cities such as Atlanta and Las Vegas as well as many smaller
communities. But the deep recession slowed this great
dispersion, a new analysis shows, raising economic and political
implications.
Between 2000 and 2010, the nation's Latino population jumped 43%
to 50.5 million, growing especially fast throughout the South
and in smaller metropolitan areas in the Midwest and Northeast.
The Latino populations more than tripled in such places as Palm
Coast, Fla., Knoxville, Tenn., and Wausau, Wis. Job
opportunities and an influx of new immigrants from Mexico and
Latin America helped drive the boom.
But with the economic downturn that began in 2007, the meltdown
of the housing market and a slowdown of new foreign arrivals,
many of these same communities have seen the Latino growth rates
flatten out.
Of 107 metro areas where the number of Latinos doubled between
2000 and 2010, almost all showed a slowdown in population growth
by the end of the decade, according to William Frey, a Brookings
Institution demographer who analyzed recently updated figures
from the Census Bureau.
"It's kind of stopped on a dime," said Frey, author of the new
report released Tuesday. "The big turndown in growth is
pervasive."
He pointed to such cities as Florida's Palm Coast, a community
of about 100,000 whose Latino population surged 19% annually for
three years in the middle of the last decade. It rose by just
1.9% in 2010. The Latino growth rate in St. George, Utah, a
community of about 73,000, fell from more than 15% in both 2005
and 2006 to 3.3% in 2010. And similar declines occurred in other
cities, including Anderson, S.C., and Bend, Ore.
Los Angeles, New York and other major metropolitan areas that
have long served as gateways and hubs for immigrants still
notched small upticks in Latino growth rates at the end of the
decade. In fact, the Latino population in the Los Angeles area,
which was flat in 2006 at the peak of the housing market
nationally, expanded by 1.5% in 2010. New York showed a similar
pattern; its Latino growth slowed in the middle of the decade
but was up by 2.4% in 2010.
The reason is that many Latinos who had left the big
metropolitan areas to find jobs and cheaper housing in smaller
cities earlier in the decade returned to those big cities during
the tough economic times, Frey said.
Those gateway cities are "the anchors for new minorities, places
where friends and relatives are ready to take in kids, provide
social and financial support when times are bad," he said.
He said it was unclear whether the broad distribution of Latinos
across the country that occurred through much of the last decade
would resume in coming years.
For many places, the question isn't just academic. As Latino
populations boomed in many communities in past years, they often
brought an influx of labor and a potential new base of customers
for retailers and other industries.
"Since both low- and high-skilled Hispanic workers will be
important for future economic growth, it will be essential to
find ways to restart their migration once the economy revives,"
Frey said.
There may be political repercussions as well.
The new analysis suggests that political leaders counting on an
increasingly large bloc of Latino voters to support their
candidates and causes — particularly in the Midwest and the
Southeast — may be disappointed.
"They may make less of a difference than people thought," Frey
said.
Beyond its focus on Latinos, the report also examined overall
population growth for the nation's 100 largest metropolitan
areas from 1980 to 2010, showing that the recession slowed or
stopped two decades worth of growth for some cities.
• Metropolitan growth in the Sun Belt and Snow Belt alike fell
in the 2000s, after accelerating in the 1990s. Southern and
Western metropolitan areas still grew faster than other areas in
recent years, but growth slowed most in those large metropolitan
areas that grew rapidly during the 1990s. Las Vegas, for
example, dropped from 85% growth that decade to 42% growth in
the 2000s.
• Suburbs continued to grow more rapidly than cities in the past
decade, but growth for both cities and suburbs declined from
where they were in the 1990s. Denver, Atlanta and Miami are
among metro areas in which suburban growth slowed the most.
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-latino-cities-
20120320,0,2935311.story
There is a direct correlation between the size of the latinReporting from Washington and Los Angeles -- For years,
America's growing and mobile Latino population helped transform
cities such as Atlanta and Las Vegas as well as many smaller
communities. But the deep recession slowed this great
dispersion, a new analysis shows, raising economic and political
implications.
Between 2000 and 2010, the nation's Latino population jumped 43%
to 50.5 million, growing especially fast throughout the South
and in smaller metropolitan areas in the Midwest and Northeast.
The Latino populations more than tripled in such places as Palm
Coast, Fla., Knoxville, Tenn., and Wausau, Wis. Job
opportunities and an influx of new immigrants from Mexico and
Latin America helped drive the boom.
But with the economic downturn that began in 2007, the meltdown
of the housing market and a slowdown of new foreign arrivals,
many of these same communities have seen the Latino growth rates
flatten out.
Of 107 metro areas where the number of Latinos doubled between
2000 and 2010, almost all showed a slowdown in population growth
by the end of the decade, according to William Frey, a Brookings
Institution demographer who analyzed recently updated figures
from the Census Bureau.
"It's kind of stopped on a dime," said Frey, author of the new
report released Tuesday. "The big turndown in growth is
pervasive."
He pointed to such cities as Florida's Palm Coast, a community
of about 100,000 whose Latino population surged 19% annually for
three years in the middle of the last decade. It rose by just
1.9% in 2010. The Latino growth rate in St. George, Utah, a
community of about 73,000, fell from more than 15% in both 2005
and 2006 to 3.3% in 2010. And similar declines occurred in other
cities, including Anderson, S.C., and Bend, Ore.
Los Angeles, New York and other major metropolitan areas that
have long served as gateways and hubs for immigrants still
notched small upticks in Latino growth rates at the end of the
decade. In fact, the Latino population in the Los Angeles area,
which was flat in 2006 at the peak of the housing market
nationally, expanded by 1.5% in 2010. New York showed a similar
pattern; its Latino growth slowed in the middle of the decade
but was up by 2.4% in 2010.
The reason is that many Latinos who had left the big
metropolitan areas to find jobs and cheaper housing in smaller
cities earlier in the decade returned to those big cities during
the tough economic times, Frey said.
Those gateway cities are "the anchors for new minorities, places
where friends and relatives are ready to take in kids, provide
social and financial support when times are bad," he said.
He said it was unclear whether the broad distribution of Latinos
across the country that occurred through much of the last decade
would resume in coming years.
For many places, the question isn't just academic. As Latino
populations boomed in many communities in past years, they often
brought an influx of labor and a potential new base of customers
for retailers and other industries.
"Since both low- and high-skilled Hispanic workers will be
important for future economic growth, it will be essential to
find ways to restart their migration once the economy revives,"
Frey said.
There may be political repercussions as well.
The new analysis suggests that political leaders counting on an
increasingly large bloc of Latino voters to support their
candidates and causes — particularly in the Midwest and the
Southeast — may be disappointed.
"They may make less of a difference than people thought," Frey
said.
Beyond its focus on Latinos, the report also examined overall
population growth for the nation's 100 largest metropolitan
areas from 1980 to 2010, showing that the recession slowed or
stopped two decades worth of growth for some cities.
• Metropolitan growth in the Sun Belt and Snow Belt alike fell
in the 2000s, after accelerating in the 1990s. Southern and
Western metropolitan areas still grew faster than other areas in
recent years, but growth slowed most in those large metropolitan
areas that grew rapidly during the 1990s. Las Vegas, for
example, dropped from 85% growth that decade to 42% growth in
the 2000s.
• Suburbs continued to grow more rapidly than cities in the past
decade, but growth for both cities and suburbs declined from
where they were in the 1990s. Denver, Atlanta and Miami are
among metro areas in which suburban growth slowed the most.
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-latino-cities-
20120320,0,2935311.story
population and the local crime rate.